Forums >Racing>Runners World Race Time Predictor
I've thought about this a lot back when I, you know, raced and cared and stuff. A few years ago I really nerded out one time and did this big analysis of my own PRs (not just marathon but everything from 5k-marathon.) The biggest predictor of running closest to lifetime PR times out of the variables I looked at was a very recent 300 mile month. The 2nd best predictor was mileage over the preceding 6 months. Things like specific workouts, long runs and mileage over longer periods like 1 year or 2 year didn't seem to show much predictive value on their own. However, I know that a 300-mile month is not something I can just go do--it in itself requires a good base of mileage and the right mix of workouts over a pretty long period of time for me to even be able and willing to pull off. In other words, lifetime mileage and mileage over 2, 3, 5 years matters A LOT, but in terms of predicting race times it mostly matters only inasmuch as it essential to having the kind of month or 6 weeks of training that will squeeze out fast times. Not to bum anyone out, and, as always, ymmv (quite literally).
I've thought about this a lot back when I, you know, raced and cared and stuff.
A few years ago I really nerded out one time and did this big analysis of my own PRs (not just marathon but everything from 5k-marathon.) The biggest predictor of running closest to lifetime PR times out of the variables I looked at was a very recent 300 mile month. The 2nd best predictor was mileage over the preceding 6 months.
Things like specific workouts, long runs and mileage over longer periods like 1 year or 2 year didn't seem to show much predictive value on their own.
However, I know that a 300-mile month is not something I can just go do--it in itself requires a good base of mileage and the right mix of workouts over a pretty long period of time for me to even be able and willing to pull off.
In other words, lifetime mileage and mileage over 2, 3, 5 years matters A LOT, but in terms of predicting race times it mostly matters only inasmuch as it essential to having the kind of month or 6 weeks of training that will squeeze out fast times.
Not to bum anyone out, and, as always, ymmv (quite literally).
This has not worked so much for me, but I haven't been running a super long time either. So maybe the 2-5 years of accumulated mileage is the necessary base, then more recent monthly mileage becomes a contributing factor.
I have only done a couple 300-mile months. For my mileage, it requires me to be at the peak of marathon training, include no mini-tapers for other races, and most importantly a month with 5 LR Sundays. Not enough data points for me to do anything with.
Dave
runktrun
... maybe the 2-5 years of accumulated mileage is the necessary base, then more recent monthly mileage becomes a contributing factor.
My own anecdotal contribution:
My PR progression at first seemed erratic, but did develop a very strong trend towards consistent medium-long mileage.
Ran one year of HS track and one year of HS XC. Smashed PRs every week. Previously a soccer and field hockey player, so it was just my natural talent catching up to distance specific work.
Ran a couple years in college, stressed out, no real improvement.
Jumped to marathons when I was 21. Cue the consistent running. Broke 19:00 for road 5k in 2009 (few weeks after training for philly full). Broke 18:00 in 2010 (few months after training for Via).
Smashed PRs in every distance from 800 to half marathon when I was 29, after 5 years of consistently running 50+ mpw with only one 4 week blip for a suspected metatarsal SFX (caught early, jumped right back into training). My workouts during that year of PRs were nothing magical. Tuesdays were usually 10 x 400 in :76-:80, maybe with some 800s or a mile repeat in the mix, hilly medium long (12mi) run every Thursday, 5k-10k race every other weekend. But I think the biggest factor was making it through a fall marathon cycle uninjured every year. The marathons were all moderately successful (2:58-3:04), but I never needed more than a week to recover before I could bang out a sub 18:00 5k. So now that my health makes it hard to plan workouts consistently, I try to remind myself to step back and look at the bigger picture. Running 7 days a week is better for me than forcing a what I think is a "key" workout that leaves me hobbled.
Not running for my health, but in spite of it.
Dream Maker
Estimated slightly too slow based on half and 10K - pretty close to dead on. Estimated just a few minutes too fast based on just half. Gave me the same time with just 5K, or just 10K. Wonder why 10K and half slowed it down based on that.Estimated way too fast (like 8 minutes) based on half and weekly mileage.I used the times leading up to marathon PR... which were typically train through races. Dunno what difference that makes.
hmmm, i'm not buying it. I ran a 1:28 half back in May with out any formal training plan, just to build a base prior to chicago marathon training officially starting for me on 6/6/16. this has me predicted for 3:15. obviously there are variables out there that aren't really accounted for in this predictor. anywho, can't wait to smash this prediction and get that BQ
https://www.instagram.com/tfilarski/
#artbydmcbride
RW and Slate both give me 3:47 if I input an average of 42 miles a week (ha! somehow I managed to run less than I had planned on). McMillan is 3:39 and Daniels 3:37. I'm planning on 3:42. I'll take $$$ for your bets via paypal. Thanks.
My I.O.U. is in the mail!! (#I'mgonnaberich!)
Runners run
delicate flower
Says I'm about to run a 3:27 marathon Saturday, which would be disappointing.
FYI, 3:22. Good enough for a BQ so I'll gladly take it.
<3
I tried going back in to see how well it predicted my marathon yesterday. I entered all my data and get "There was an error performing the calculation. Please try again."
Looks like that tool was designed by the same people that did their forums.
Just under 3:42. So 5 minutes faster than the RW predictor.
It predicted a 3:04:30. I ran a 3:03:15 yesterday (PR by about 1.5 minutes).
The "recent 300 mile month" predictor also predicted good things -- 310 miles in August.
not bad for mile 25
You were your best race predictor. Glad I didn't bet.
Congrats on your great race!
<------ Still.
<------
Still.
Slacker no more!
Based on:
13.1, 4 weeks ago = 1:36:50
5k, 2 weeks ago = 20:32
64 mpw (avg last 8 weeks before taper)
Prediction = 3:28:13 (7:56 pace)
Actual = 3:28:55 (7:59 pace, but based on Garmin's 26.32 miles, 7:57 pace)
Of course plugging in either of these races on its own would have predicted a much faster marathon. But plugging in both of them calculates how much slower I get with distance. So I guess looking at it that way, I am still a marathon slacker. But in a predictable manner.
Slacker no more! Based on: 13.1, 4 weeks ago = 1:36:50 5k, 2 weeks ago = 20:32 64 mpw (avg last 8 weeks before taper) Prediction = 3:28:13 (7:56 pace) Actual = 3:28:55 (7:59 pace, but based on Garmin's 26.32 miles, 7:57 pace) Of course plugging in either of these races on its own would have predicted a much faster marathon. But plugging in both of them calculates how much slower I get with distance. So I guess looking at it that way, I am still a marathon slacker. But in a predictable manner.
Just so happy for you Dave! Excellent.
Nice to see RA peeps running better than RW thinks we can.