Good Morning!

No recap, just a quick fly-by.

3 miles in 36ish degrees with a bit of wind.

Now that we are 8 days out from our trip to Jamaica, our friend is warning us that there is a travel advisory asking travelers to reconsider their travel there.  Well, crap, NOW you tell us....I'm NOT cancelling our trip.  BUT, we will likely stay on the resort property for the most part, and we don't go out after dark...after being in the sun all day, I can barely stay up until 9pm anyway.

Holly - thanks for the belated start that was okay as being three hours earlier for those of us in PST and just in time for our daily motivation to wake up and face a third morning in a row of the "relentless" rains being predicted by meteorologists who have nothing else to say about the mild and blasee winters of the PNW but which, for the third morning in a row not only didn't materialize but the 7:00 am temp was already 58F, just right for some third-day-in-a-row loops around the nearby hillside park I'm just starting to make up for missing the last two months over there but, with Dr. Torture's weekly torture fest on the afternoon agenda, I needed to save what little strength has survived the last two months and aimed, instead, the other direction for a Safeway run of 1.25 RT miles for two sumo oranges and some bananas.  However, relentless rains or not, it's back to the hillside for me tomorrow, especially to extend my 2-miles loops' distance to the 5K route scheduled for this weekend's Icicle Trail 5K Run that's been arthritis thwarted for the last two years and which I can hardly wait to do on Mr. Knew Knee even though it will be mostly recovery walking but, to me, probably like flying. Yippee.,

our friend is warning us that there is a travel advisory asking travelers to reconsider their travel there.  Well, crap, NOW you tell us....I'm NOT cancelling our trip.  BUT, we will likely stay on the resort property for the most part, and we don't go out after dark...after being in the sun all day, I can barely stay up until 9pm anyway.

Holly - glad you found about the travel alert.

Don't ask me how I know but be sure to check it out on your own too.

In particular, just to be safe and not to have to worry, maybe check their cautions to (1) take out traveler's insurance and (2) never go anywhere alone, not even down the hallway by yourself plus (3) enroll in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP)" ASAP to keep up-to-date on the situation and in case of emergencies once you're there.

Travel Alerts are to be taken very, very seriously.  Thanks.

^{1.  "Sexual assaults occur frequently, including at all-inclusive resorts" and}

^{"local police often do not respond effectively to serious criminal incidents."} 

^{2. ". . . obtain traveler's insurance" . . . (for) "bills in the tens of thousands}

^{of dollars, with air ambulance service to the U.S. in the range}

^{of $30,000 - $50,000."}

^{3.  "Violence and shootings occur (so) regularly in many neighborhoods,}

^{communities, and parishes in Jamaica" that all USG officials and employees}

^{are prohibited from going to many dozens of listed ones.}  

Sub and Tet - we are not going to Negril (although last year we took a taxi there to Jack's, with no issues) or Kingston.  We are staying at the Jewel Grande Montego Bay, and have a private shuttle to and from the airport.  A lot of issues happen with drunken tourists out club-hopping or wandering off the main tourist areas, especially after dark.  That is not us.  We are fairly seasoned tourists, and generally keep our wits about us.  Millions of people travel to Jamaica every year without harm.  And Tet - we always get the travel insurance.

6 months Jay? Holy crap. smh

3 miles for me this AM, brisk walking. It was also 36 so not cold... but it rained overnight so now everything is wet again. So much for that couple of hours of sun we saw yesterday.

Back to work...that's all I've got for now.

So, my DS just texted me to let me know that his fiancée's mother just tested positive for Covid.  I suppose I should have expected that might happen with the funeral gathering over the weekend that of course involved lots of hugs (from me and DH as well).  Hopefully neither of us will come down with it.  We are both apparently still Covid virgins as far as we know, although maybe we were in the asymptomatic group.  We have test kits in the cupboard if we need them.  Fingers crossed.

Holly- I hope you don't get C.  You and your husband seem pretty resistant!    Dave- I can imagine that you are wiped out!  Good work on the snacks.... I'm sort of bad about that.

Another day, another 3 mile walk. 54F, no rain, overcast.

Yes, the placebo effect. That's why Phase 3 clinical studies typically have to be placebo-controlled and double-blind. Pain studies often have high placebo effects (pain is subjective, depending on your mood and expectation of improvement), so whoever said it was correct, you need a 60% improvement on the drug compared to a 30% improvement on placebo in some cases, depending on the sample size, to prove your drug is more effective than placebo. If you enroll enough subjects, the statistics should be able to show a significant difference with a smaller 'treatment difference' of maybe only 10%.

We did a Parkinson's disease study once that included a patient questionnaire. I found it really amazing that some of the subjects were saying "I felt an improvement right away, less rigid, can't wait for this drug to be available", yet they were in the placebo arm.

Another day, another 3 mile walk. 54F, no rain, overcast.

 

Yes, the placebo effect. That's why Phase 3 clinical studies typically have to be placebo-controlled and double-blind. Pain studies often have high placebo effects (pain is subjective, depending on your mood and expectation of improvement), so whoever said it was correct, you need a 60% improvement on the drug compared to a 30% improvement on placebo in some cases, depending on the sample size, to prove your drug is more effective than placebo. If you enroll enough subjects, the statistics should be able to show a significant difference with a smaller 'treatment difference' of maybe only 10%.

 

We did a Parkinson's disease study once that included a patient questionnaire. I found it really amazing that some of the subjects were saying "I felt an improvement right away, less rigid, can't wait for this drug to be available", yet they were in the placebo arm.

This reminds me of a story my SO once told me about something he used to do when his daughter was small. Apparently she often complained that her legs hurt at night (though he never saw any actual injury). His solution was to take out an umarked lotion bottle and make a big production about how rare and special this "medicine" was, and how lucky she was that he was able to get some. "It's called Placebo," he used to say, and it is very very strong, so I'll only use a little bit." Worked like a charm. In fact, she used to sometimes say, "Dad, my legs are starting to hurt. Quick, get me the Placebo!"

I finally got outside for me run today! After a week on the TM, it felt like a whole new exercise.

5.3 miles in all.